Discussion: Apologies for the last-minute posting. I was busy today. The algorithms are mostly automatic, but do require SOME human analysis.
In short, nothing is really getting me excited today, |
Prediction Made: September 11, 2020 at 09:20 EDT|
Issue (ticker): VGK: Vanguard FTSE Europe Index Fund
VGK on Yahoo! Finance
Sentiment: LONG (bullish, prices will rise)
duration: mid-term, fewer than eight days, perhaps as short as intraday
expected profit: 1% to 2% in issue price; 5% to 20% with call options
How To Trade This Prediction|
Note: all bets are off if there has been a major unexpected news event since the prediction
Less-Aggresive, Less-Risky trade:
Buy some shares of VGK at the next opening bell. Consider selling at least half after they increase 1% in value. In any case, sell it all within four days as this prediction does not go beyond that.
Some options are lightly traded at the opening bell which results in a large spread between the Bid and Ask prices. That's a bad time to buy. Sometimes the only way to get a reasonable price is to wait a few minutes until the Bid and Ask start converging.
BOUGHT: VGK OCT 16 2020 54.0 Call at 09:34 on Setember 11, 2020 @ 1.45, but only a few contracts (fun money -- and, note the lengthy expiration date)
SOLD: VGK OCT 16 2020 54.0 Call at 09:32 on Setember 14, 2020 @ 1.55. I just didn't want to hold on anymore. It wasn't a great trade.
Profit for this trade: +6.9%, but I didn't have much money at risk. I won't include this in Polihale.com statistics because it wasn't a real prediction.
With this trade, $1 invested in all Polihale.com predictions since August 30, 2020 would be worth...
|Epilogue: Although this ended-up as a winner (almost 7%), I wasn't confident in this trade and should have ignored it. I think I just got lucky on this one. I'm happy to be out.|