Polihale.com > Predictions > September 11, 2020

Discussion: Apologies for the last-minute posting. I was busy today. The algorithms are mostly automatic, but do require SOME human analysis. In short, nothing is really getting me excited today, but if I had to pick a horse, I'd pick to go long VGK (Vanguard FTSE Europe Index Fund ETF Shares). I'm looking at a possible one-week gain. I won't bet the farm on this one. I'd only bet some fun money. If you're cautious, bet nothing. I'll iterate, VGK looks okay for the next few days. That's all I'll say.

Prediction Made: September 11, 2020 at 09:20 EDT
Issue (ticker): VGK: Vanguard FTSE Europe Index Fund
VGK on Yahoo! Finance
Sentiment: LONG (bullish, prices will rise)
duration: mid-term, fewer than eight days, perhaps as short as intraday
expected profit: 1% to 2% in issue price; 5% to 20% with call options

How To Trade This Prediction

Note: all bets are off if there has been a major unexpected news event since the prediction

Less-Aggresive, Less-Risky trade:
Buy some shares of VGK at the next opening bell. Consider selling at least half after they increase 1% in value. In any case, sell it all within four days as this prediction does not go beyond that.

Some options are lightly traded at the opening bell which results in a large spread between the Bid and Ask prices. That's a bad time to buy. Sometimes the only way to get a reasonable price is to wait a few minutes until the Bid and Ask start converging.

Actual Performance:
BOUGHT: VGK OCT 16 2020 54.0 Call at 09:34 on Setember 11, 2020 @ 1.45, but only a few contracts (fun money -- and, note the lengthy expiration date)
SOLD: VGK OCT 16 2020 54.0 Call at 09:32 on Setember 14, 2020 @ 1.55. I just didn't want to hold on anymore. It wasn't a great trade.

Profit for this trade: +6.9%, but I didn't have much money at risk. I won't include this in Polihale.com statistics because it wasn't a real prediction.
With this trade, $1 invested in all Polihale.com predictions since August 30, 2020 would be worth...
  • $1.80 (50% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.33 (25% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.17 (12% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.08 (6% of capital invested per trade)

Epilogue: Although this ended-up as a winner (almost 7%), I wasn't confident in this trade and should have ignored it. I think I just got lucky on this one. I'm happy to be out.