Polihale.com > Predictions > October 13, 2020

Discussion: Yesterday, I said EQT was possibly in-play, but I wanted to wait before jumping in. While I waited, it went up several percentage points. A wasted opportunity, but better to wait than lose. I said I wanted to see it sink or stall before going long. Today, a few hours after the opening bell, EQT sank and stalled a bit. I think it's the right time to get in. However, I'm giving this one at least a week or so to be profitable. Not looking for overnight gains. However, I confess I did put a few hundred dollars of 'fun' money into short-term options that expire on Friday. I picked them up for 14 cents each. There is a chance they could expire worthless, but also an equal chance of doubling in price. But it's only fun money.

Prediction Made: October 13, 2020 at about 11:40 EDT
Issue (ticker): EQT: EQT Corporation (EQT)
EQT on Yahoo! Finance
Sentiment: LONG (bullish, prices will rise)
duration: mid-term, a week or two
expected profit: 1% to 2% in issue price; 5% to 20% with call options

How To Trade This Prediction

Note: all bets are off if there has been a major unexpected news event since the prediction

Less-Aggresive, Less-Risky trade:
Buy some shares of EQT today. Consider selling at least half after they increase 1% in value. In any case, sell it all within ten days as this prediction does not go beyond that.

Aggressive and risky trade:
Buy call options of EQT.

Actual Performance:
BOUGHT EQT OCT 16 2020 16.0 Call options @ 0.14 at about 11:30 EDT on October 13, 2020
BOUGHT EQT NOV 20 2020 14.0 Call options @ 2.087 at about 11:50 EDT on October 13, 2020
(filled at two different prices)
BOUGHT EQT NOV 20 2020 14.0 Call options @ 1.90-something, so my final price was $1.99
The 14-cent option (my high-risk, high-reward 'fun' trade) expired worthless.
SOLD all options @ 2.20 right after the opening bell on October 21, 2020
Profit for this trade: +10.55% (I am not including the 'fun' trade)
With this trade, $1 invested in all Polihale.com predictions since August 30, 2020 would be worth...
  • $2.38 (50% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.50 (25% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.26 (12% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.13 (6% of capital invested per trade)
...but these numbers are not completely faithful because I had two concurrent investments which were unevenly split. I also invested more mid-stream, but at a different price. So these numbers are more theoretical than anything. But still, they're nice numbers.

Epilogue: TBD, but the short-term options are very likely going to expire worthless. I knew it was risky, but it was a fun bet.
October 21, 2020: I'm pretty happy with the break-out at the opening bell. I'm reluctant now to leave money on the table, even if the price continues to go up. I like cashing-out and stopping any losses.