Polihale.com > Predictions > October 16, 2020

Discussion: KRNY is looking good for a short-term gain.

Prediction Made: October 16, 2020 at 4:57 AM EDT
Issue (ticker): KRNY: Kearny Financial Corporation
KRNY on Yahoo! Finance
Sentiment: LONG (bullish, prices will riseall)
duration: short-term, perhaps as short as intraday
expected profit: 1% to 2% in issue price; 5% to 20% with put options

How To Trade This Prediction

Note: all bets are off if there has been a major unexpected news event since the prediction

Less-Aggresive, Less-Risky trade:
Buy some shares of KRNY at the next opening bell. Consider selling at least half after they increase 1% in value. In any case, sell it all within a week.

More aggressive trade: buy 7.50 call options of KRNY with November 20 expiration.

Actual Performance: BOUGHT KRNY Nov 20 2020 7.5 Call options at 0.60 at 9:51 EDT on October 16.
There was a large spread between the bid and the ask, which usually means it's lightly traded. It's tough to get a good entry when that's the case. I probably will filter out thinly-traded issues in the future. I think I got a fair price at sixty cents, but it needs to move quite a bit before I can see any profit. I have a month.
SOLD KRNY Nov 20 2020 7.5 Call options on October 19, 2020 at 1.00 at 13:09 EDT.
Gain of +66.7% on this trade.
With this trade, $1 invested in all Polihale.com predictions since August 30, 2020 would be worth...
  • $2.26 (50% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.47 (25% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.24 (12% of capital invested per trade)
  • $1.12 (6% of capital invested per trade)
...but these numbers are not completely faithful because I have two concurrent investments which are unevenly split. So these numbers are more theoretical than anything. But still, they're nice numbers.

Epilogue: When you look at the chart, it's a beautiful entry and exit. Wish they could all be so easy.

But wow, it was strange to work with a market that had such low volumes. The spread between the Bid and Ask was sometimes ridiculous. When I saw that KRNY had gone up 4%, I was certain I could easily unload my options for $1.00 or even more. But my trade sat out there for an hour, failing to be filled, even as the price kept rising. With a more active market, this would not have happened. So, another lesson. But, in any case, 66.7% profit is excellent for two days. I could have bailed sooner, and only made 50%. This stock might go even higher tomorrow, but I'm reluctant to leave profit like that on the table. Also, it's nice to redeem myself after the FXE loss earlier this month.

Post-epilogue: Ouch. Normally, I never look back. I'm happy to have my gains, and that's that. But look what happened to KRNY after I sold it. It goes to show the prediction was solid. Again, I'm happy with my gains, but it's hard not to think about what could have been.